Sector:	Economics of Education | Education
Client:	Welsh Government
Published:	March, 2022
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This study investigated the role of contextual factors in explaining subsequent achievement at the post-16 level in Wales. This was achieved using matched data from various Welsh educational data collections and linking information on general education, vocational learning and Welsh Baccalaureate study with information from Year 11 secondary school data.  The results indicate that absence in Year 11 (both share of absences and unauthorised absence) and prior attainment at Key Stage 4 are very strong drivers of subsequent achievement at post-16 level. This was observed across a variety of achievement measures considered for both general education and vocational programmes (for different vocational programme levels).  Other characteristics such as eligibility for Free School Meals, local area deprivation, gender, and age at start also seem to play a role in explaining post-16 achievement.